10Y annualized return is
positive but below market average
at 1.8% per year
UPST has met or exceeded earnings expectations in
the majority of
recent quarters (8/10)
Strong Gross Profit Margin
Strong Liquidity Ratios
Cash Per Share
🚀 Strong Financial Recovery
🔍 Innovative Model Enhancements
🌐 Expanding Product Offerings
📈 Ambitious Growth Targets
🤖 Commitment to AI and Innovation
Negative Price Ratios
High EV Ratios
Negative Profit Margins
Return on Equity Concerns
High Debt Levels
Interest Coverage Issue
⚠️ Dependence on Market Conditions
📉 Potential Market Constraints
Overall, Upstart appears to be on a strong recovery trajectory with significant innovations and expanding product offerings. However, its reliance on macroeconomic conditions and funding availability presents potential risks that need to be managed carefully.
Analysis Date: February 11, 2025
Last Updated: March 12, 2025
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The data presented is indicative and may not be updated in real-time.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a company that helps people get loans more easily using advanced technology. They have an online platform that matches people looking for loans with banks that can give them money. By using smart computer systems, they can quickly decide who can borrow money and how much they can get. This makes it simpler and faster for people to access the funds they need.
Core Products
Business Type
Business to Business
Competitive Advantages
Key Business Risks
Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) values provide a view of the company's performance over the last year.
Benjamin Graham's value investing approach focuses on finding stocks with a significant margin of safety between their intrinsic value and market price.
Intrinsic Value
Estimated fair value based on Graham's formula
UPST: No Graham value data available
Margin of Safety
Gap between intrinsic value and market price
UPST: No margin of safety data available
Graham Criteria Checklist
Benjamin Graham's value investing checklist for UPST
Positive earnings (5+ years)
Dividend history (5+ years)
P/E ratio ≤ 20 (-24.95)
P/B ratio ≤ 1.5 (5.07)
Current ratio ≥ 2.0 (2.75x)
Long-term debt < Net current assets (1.94x)
Margin of safety
UPST does not meet all Graham criteria
Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) values provide a view of the company's performance over the last year.
Profitability metrics measure a company's ability to generate earnings relative to its revenue, operating costs, and other relevant metrics. Higher values generally indicate better performance.
Return on Equity (ROE)
Measures how efficiently a company uses its equity to generate profits
-21.11%
Higher values indicate better returns for shareholders
TTM (as of 2025-04-30)
Gross Profit Margin
Percentage of revenue retained after accounting for cost of goods sold
100.00%
Higher values indicate better efficiency in production
TTM (as of 2025-04-30)
Net Profit Margin
Percentage of revenue retained after accounting for all expenses
-20.45%
Higher values indicate better overall profitability
TTM (as of 2025-04-30)
UPST has an impressive gross profit margin of 97.51%, which indicates that it retains a significant portion of revenue after accounting for the cost of goods sold. This suggests a strong pricing strategy and cost control in its core operations.
The company has negative operating and net profit margins of -27.16% and -20.20%, respectively. These figures indicate that UPST is currently struggling to convert sales into profits at both the operating and net levels.
With a return on equity of -21.11%, UPST is not generating returns for its shareholders, indicating inefficiencies in utilizing equity capital.
Financial health metrics assess a company's ability to meet its financial obligations and its overall financial stability.
Debt to Equity Ratio
Total debt divided by total equity
2.29x
Lower values indicate less financial leverage and risk
Less than 1.0 is conservative, 1.0-2.0 is moderate, >2.0 indicates high risk
Q4 2024
Current Ratio
Current assets divided by current liabilities
2.75x
Higher values indicate better short-term liquidity
Less than 1.0 is concerning, 1.0-2.0 is adequate, greater than 2.0 is good
Q4 2024
UPST shows a current ratio of 2.33 and a quick ratio of 2.33, indicating strong liquidity and the ability to cover short-term obligations. This is a positive sign for financial health.
The company holds a cash per share value of $9.00, providing a buffer for operational needs and potential investments.
UPST has a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.29 and a debt-to-assets ratio of 0.61, indicating that the company relies heavily on debt financing, which could pose risks in a rising interest rate environment.
The interest coverage ratio is -3.59, indicating that the company is currently unable to cover its interest expenses, which is a significant red flag for financial health.
Meeting Expectations
Higher values indicate better execution and credibility
Recent Results
EPS
Revenue
Upstart demonstrated a remarkable turnaround in its financial performance, achieving a 33% growth in origination volume and a 35% increase in revenue on a sequential basis in Q4 2024. The company reported adjusted EBITDA at levels not seen since early 2022, with a nearly breakeven GAAP net loss of $2.8 million.
The introduction of Model 19, featuring the Payment Transition Model (PTM), significantly improved risk assessment and model accuracy. This innovation allows better underwriting by considering intermediate delinquency states, enhancing the overall credit decisioning process.
Upstart's diversification into auto refinancing, HELOCs, and small-dollar loans shows a strategic expansion of its product portfolio. The HELOC product saw a 60% sequential growth, indicating strong market demand and effective execution.
Upstart's performance is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, specifically credit default rates and lending conditions. The company has stated it does not plan its business based on future macro improvements, which may lead to vulnerabilities during economic downturns.
For 2025, Upstart aims to achieve $1 billion in total revenues, indicating confidence in its growth trajectory. The goal includes a focus on returning to GAAP profitability and scaling its funding supply, which positions the company well for future expansion.
Upstart's emphasis on AI-driven model enhancements and its aim to '10x leadership in AI' suggests a strong focus on continuous innovation. This could lead to improved efficiencies and better borrower experiences, reinforcing its market position.
While Upstart has a strong outlook, the company acknowledges that the funding environment can be a constraint on its growth. Any unexpected downturns in the funding market or shifts in investor appetite could hinder its ambitious growth plans.
Insider trading data shows purchase and sale activities by company executives and board members.
Insider trading patterns can provide insights into how company executives and board members view the stock's future prospects.
Insiders are buying significantly more than selling (ratio: 1.81x)
Total Bought
Total value of insider purchases in recent quarters
$729254
Higher values indicate stronger insider confidence
Total Sold
Total value of insider sales in recent quarters
$403821
Lower values relative to buying indicate possible undervaluation
Active Insiders
Number of insiders trading in recent quarters
3
Moderate insider activity
Recent Trend
Change in insider trading pattern
UPST: No trend data available