10Y annualized return is
very good
at 14.2% per year
FAST has met or exceeded earnings expectations in
some
recent quarters (5/10)
Strong Return on Equity
Healthy Profit Margins
Strong Liquidity Ratios
Low Debt Levels
π’ Strong Customer Base
π Effective Business Model
π° Strong Cash Flow Generation
π Growth in E-commerce and Technology
π Positive Market Sentiment
High Price Ratios
High Price-to-Cash-Flow Ratio
Moderate Cash Position
β οΈ Customer Site Performance
π Margin Pressure
β³ Economic Uncertainty
π Dependency on Key Accounts
Fastenal demonstrates strong business quality through its effective business model, robust cash flow generation, and a concentrated customer base. However, challenges in lower-tier customer segments and margin pressures could affect growth. On the future prospects front, growth in e-commerce and technology, along with improving market sentiment, present opportunities, though economic uncertainties and dependency on key accounts pose risks.
Analysis Date: January 17, 2025 Last Updated: March 12, 2025
+277%
+14.2% per year
Past performance does not guarantee future results. The data presented is indicative and may not be updated in real-time.
CountryUS
ExchangeNASDAQ
IndustryIndustrial - Distribution
SectorIndustrials
Market Cap$41.23B
CEOMr. Daniel L. Florness
Fastenal Company is a business that sells industrial and construction supplies. They provide a variety of products like screws, bolts, and other fasteners that are used in building things and fixing machines. Fastenal has many locations where customers, including factories and construction workers, can easily buy what they need. Founded in 1967 and based in Minnesota, they help a wide range of industries keep their operations running smoothly.
Strategic PartnershipsFastenal's collaborations with OEMs and contractors create long-term relationships, ensuring a steady stream of business and fostering customer dependency on their products.
π οΈ
Diverse Product OfferingThe wide range of industrial and construction supplies, including specialized fasteners and hardware, allows Fastenal to cater to various customer needs across multiple industries.
π
Strong Brand RecognitionWith decades of experience in the industry, Fastenal has built a reputable brand that is trusted by various sectors, enhancing customer loyalty and retention.
π
Extensive Distribution NetworkFastenal's large network of over 3,200 in-market locations and multiple distribution centers enables efficient supply chain management and quick delivery to customers.
π¦
Innovative Inventory Management SolutionsAdvanced inventory management services, such as vending solutions and tailored supply chain systems, provide added value to customers and enhance operational efficiency.
Key Business Risks
π
Economic DownturnsEconomic recessions can reduce demand for construction and industrial supplies, impacting sales revenue.
π₯
Market CompetitionIntense competition from other distributors may erode market share and pressure pricing strategies.
π
Regulatory ChangesChanges in regulations affecting safety, environmental standards, or trade can create compliance challenges and costs.
β οΈ
Supply Chain DisruptionsInterruptions in the supply chain can lead to delays in acquiring essential products and increased costs.
π»
Technological AdvancementsFailure to keep pace with technological changes in distribution and inventory management can lead to inefficiencies.
Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) values provide a view of the company's performance over the last year.
Graham Value Metrics
Benjamin Graham's value investing approach focuses on finding stocks with a significant margin of safety between their intrinsic value and market price.
Intrinsic Value
Estimated fair value based on Graham's formula
$47.04
Current Market Price: $74.45
IV/P Ratio: 0.63x (>1.0 indicates undervalued)
Margin of Safety
Gap between intrinsic value and market price
-57.99999999999999%
Graham recommended a minimum of 20-30% margin of safety
Higher values indicate a greater potential discount to fair value
Graham Criteria Checklist
Benjamin Graham's value investing checklist for FAST
Positive earnings (5+ years)
Dividend history (5+ years)
P/E ratio β€ 20 (37.67)
P/B ratio β€ 1.5 (11.98)
Current ratio β₯ 2.0 (4.67x)
Long-term debt < Net current assets (0.12x)
Margin of safety (-57.99999999999999%)
FAST does not meet all Graham criteria
ROE: 31.989777493819272
ROA: None
Gross Profit Margin: 44.006095944871454
Net Profit Margin: 15.247813411078717
Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) values provide a view of the company's performance over the last year.
Income Statement Flow
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About Profitability Metrics
Profitability metrics measure a company's ability to generate earnings relative to its revenue, operating costs, and other relevant metrics. Higher values generally indicate better performance.
Return on Equity (ROE)
Measures how efficiently a company uses its equity to generate profits
31.99%
10%15%
Higher values indicate better returns for shareholders
TTM (as of 2025-04-30)
Gross Profit Margin
Percentage of revenue retained after accounting for cost of goods sold
44.01%
20%40%
Higher values indicate better efficiency in production
TTM (as of 2025-04-30)
Net Profit Margin
Percentage of revenue retained after accounting for all expenses
The gross profit margin is 44.01%, indicating a strong ability to generate profit from sales. The net profit margin of 15.25% reflects solid profitability after all expenses.
Weaknesses
High Price-to-Cash-Flow Ratio
44.86
P/FCF Ratio
The price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) ratio is 44.86, suggesting that the stock might be expensive relative to its cash generation capabilities.
About Financial Health Metrics
Financial health metrics assess a company's ability to meet its financial obligations and its overall financial stability.
Debt to Equity Ratio
Total debt divided by total equity
0.13x
1.0x2.0x
Lower values indicate less financial leverage and risk
Less than 1.0 is conservative, 1.0-2.0 is moderate, >2.0 indicates high risk
Less than 1.0 is concerning, 1.0-2.0 is adequate, greater than 2.0 is good
Q4 2024
Financial Health Analysis
Strengths
Strong Liquidity Ratios
4.67
Current Ratio
2.28
Quick Ratio
The current ratio of 4.67 and quick ratio of 2.28 indicate a strong ability to cover short-term liabilities with current assets.
Low Debt Levels
0.13
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 shows that the company is conservatively leveraged, suggesting lower financial risk.
Weaknesses
Moderate Cash Position
0.37
Cash Ratio
The cash ratio of 0.37 indicates that while the company has good liquidity, its cash reserves are not excessively high compared to current liabilities.
Historical Earnings Results
Meeting Expectations
5/10
Higher values indicate better execution and credibility
Recent Results
2025-04-11
0.0%
2025-01-17
-4.2%
2024-10-11
+2.0%
2024-07-12
0.0%
2024-04-11
-1.9%
2024-01-18
+2.2%
2023-10-12
+4.0%
2023-07-13
-1.9%
2023-04-13
+4.0%
2023-01-19
+2.4%
Earnings call from January 17, 2025
EPS
0.52
Estimated
0.52
Actual
0.00%
Difference
Strengths
π’ Strong Customer Base
77%
Percentage of Sales from 10K+ Customers
18%
Growth of 50K+ Customer Sites CAGR
Fastenal has a robust customer base with approximately 270,000 unique customer sites, and a significant percentage of sales derived from larger customers. In 2024, about 5% of customer sites generated 77% of total sales, showing a strong concentration of revenue from key accounts.
π Effective Business Model
2,031
Number of Onsite Locations
12%
Growth in Onsite Customer Sites
The company has a well-structured business model focusing on onsite services and vending solutions, which have proven successful in enhancing customer engagement and operational efficiency. The onsite program has grown significantly, with a 12% increase in customer sites compared to the previous year.
π° Strong Cash Flow Generation
102%
Operating Cash Flow as % of Net Income
10%
Dividend Increase
Fastenal generated significant operating cash flow, amounting to 102% of net income for the full year 2024, reflecting strong financial health and the ability to reward shareholders through dividends, which were increased by 10%.
Weaknesses
β οΈ Customer Site Performance
4%
CAGR for 5K-10K Customer Sites
2%
Percentage of Sales from <5K Customers
While Fastenal has a solid customer base, the bottom two customer segments (those spending less than $10,000/month) have shown slow growth, indicating potential challenges in capturing lower-tier customers.
π Margin Pressure
18.9%
Operating Margin (Q4 2024)
44.8%
Gross Margin (Q4 2023)
The company faced margin pressures in 2024 due to product mix and shipping costs, particularly during the holiday season. This could affect profitability if not managed effectively.
Opportunities
π Growth in E-commerce and Technology
28%
E-commerce Growth Rate
66% to 68%
Projected Digital Revenue Contribution
Fastenal is focusing on improving its e-commerce capabilities, which grew by 28% in 2024. Investments in technology and digital capabilities, including AI, are expected to enhance service delivery and customer engagement.
π Positive Market Sentiment
12%
Contract Base Growth (December)
There is a noted improvement in customer sentiment post-election, suggesting a more favorable economic environment for growth in 2025. Regional leadership reports increasing optimism, which may translate into higher sales.
Risks
β³ Economic Uncertainty
Sub-50
PMI Status
Despite positive sentiment, the broader economic landscape remains uncertain, with the PMI indicating modest contraction in manufacturing, which may impact future sales growth.
π Dependency on Key Accounts
77%
Percentage of Revenue from Top 5% Customers
Fastenal's business model heavily relies on a small percentage of high-revenue accounts, which poses risks if these key customers face downturns or decide to switch suppliers.
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